Macbeth: Dark, Evil, and Tragic Essays -- Macbeth Character Analysis

â€Å"Macbeth†- A revered play written in the 16th century by the famous playwright: William Shakespeare. The theme of â€Å"Macbeth† is centred on how power and the thirst for it can corrupt a person and lead to their insanity. Power-hungry and manipulating Lady Macbeth, with the help of the prophecies of the three malevolent witches, persuades the eponymous Macbeth to kill his king, so that she can be the queen. But unfortunately, for her, her plans do not ultimately run smoothly. Both Macbeth’s guilty conscience and his wife’s insanity give them away and eventually lead to their down fall. The purpose of this essay is to discuss to what extent Shakespeare portrays Lady Macbeth as a truly evil character throughout the play. From her very opening scene Shakespeare depicts Lady Macbeth as being cold and full of evilness. In act 1 scene 5, Lady Macbeth is introduced reading a letter from Macbeth. Already the audience can see she has evil plans. â€Å"Hie thee hither, That I may pour my spirits in thine ear And chastise with the valour of my tongue.† (Act 1 scene 5) This exhibits that she wants Macbeth to come back home so she can persuade him to do the evil deed. Later in the scene, Lady Macbeth is afraid that Macbeth is too weak and too compassionate to be a murderer, therefore she asks the gods to replace all her goodness and femininity with cold haunted evilness. This is clear when she calls the evil spirits; â€Å"...Unsex me here, Make thick my blood, Stop up th’access and passage to remorse... Come to my woman’s breasts, And take my milk for gall...† (Act 1 scene 5) So that she can poison her husband’s mind. The audience’s first impression of her is as a remorseless, cold evil wife. This prepares the audience for the evilness sh... ...5 scene 5). Power has watered down all his love and kindness. Shakespeare portrayed Lady Macbeth as evil and in the end was driven to death by her own guilt because ultimately she was a human and not a complete monster. Lady Macbeth is thought of being a truly evil character because of the way Shakespeare portrays her character. Her malevolent influence on Macbeth, her trying to hide her humanity to help her have more power over her husband, then her trying very hard to hide her guilt are all examples of the evil she had done. Her dark and sinister nature gradually gave way to insanity and a suicide. Lady Macbeth’s character is a proof that power and thirst for it can lead to insanity and a person’s ultimate down fall. Works Cited Shakespeare, William. The Tragedy of Macbeth. Boston: D.C. Heath and Company, 1915. Google Books. Web. 3 Sept. 2015.

Hamlet Insane or Sane :: essays research papers

Hamlet- Sane or Insane   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  In Shakespeare’s play Hamlet the main character Hamlet experiences many different and puzzling emotions. He toys with the idea of killing himself and then plays with the idea of murdering others. Many people ask themselves who or what is this man and what is going on inside his head. The most common question asked about him is whether or not he is sane or insane. Although the door seems to swing both ways many see him as a sane person with one thought on his mind, and that is revenge. The first point of his sanity is while speaking with Horatio in the beginning of the play, secondly is the fact of his wittiness with the other characters and finally, his soliloquy.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  After talking with the ghost, Hamlet, comes back to Horatio and Marcellus and tries to explain to them never to let anyone know what has happened. Both are very scared but agree to the prince’s, but both are still looking to find out what happened between the ghost and him. Further on in the evening Hamlet takes Horatio to the side and explains to him that no matter how odd he acted that Horatio say nothing. (And therefore as a stranger-you most need help you Act1 sc5 line 187-202) He basically explained to Horatio that he was going to be acting much differently than normal, and he told him not to ask questions. This here proves he knew what he was going to have to do. It shows that he was willing to get his revenge by any way possible.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The second point showing his sanity is the fact that he was able to match wits with the other characters in the play. If he was an insane person why would he plan a way to let Claudius know that he knows about the death of his father. Most insane people don’t have the mind for that type of thing, but he was able to do it. He was able to let Claudius know without saying a word. He had the players act it out for him and what a job they did to let him know. He even knows when his good friends, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, show up that they are they to spy and find information about him to give to the king. (Act2 sc2 Line293-298). If he was insane why would he recognize the fact that his friends are turning on him.

Admiral Jarok as a Traitor Essay examples -- Star Trek Essays Papers

Admiral Jarok as a Traitor Although a somewhat tacky and predictable program, Star Trek: The Next Generation, succeeds where other television shows don't. Beneath all the glitz and glamour, a very straightforward theme arises in each episode parallel to our own society. One such episode is "The Defector," wherein the intrepid crew of the U.S.S. Enterprise happens upon a Romulan renegade requesting asylum in Federation space. The Federation, (protected by its military organization Starfleet), and the Romulans, (governed by the Romulan Star Empire), are long-time foes. Throughout the episode the Romulan, (initially calling himself Cetol), skates around the truth before revealing his true identity as the notorious Admiral Jarok, and further explains his motivations for defecting to the Federation. Here one must ponder the fine line between vengeful treason and inspired salvation. Jarok is a traitor of the Romulan Empire, but not of his people; he reluctantly betrays state secrets to save Romulus from the bitter c onsequences of war. Jarok's betrayal commences when he flees into Federation space to inform Starfleet of the impending completion of a secret supply depot within the Neutral Zone, a "no-man's" boundary between Federation and Romulan space. Jarok claims that this depot, orbiting the planet of Nelvana III, will undoubtedly serve as the inception point of the Romulan Empire's invasion into Federation space. Convinced he is still loyal to the Empire, Jarok lies about his identity and his true intentions. Jarok attempts to act both as an Admiral of the Romulan Empire and a champion willing to abandon his rank for the sake of his race. Jarok destroys his shuttle, insisting that he will only reveal the bare minimum of Romulan... ...flicting administrative policy and wonder why nothing is ever resolved. Perhaps in a sudden epiphany, we will realize the same truth Jarok did on the holodeck: genuine peace is not possible without compromise and sacrifice. Works Cited Achim, Jo. "The Romulan Empire." TOS TrekMUSE - Romulan Empire. 1994 http://tos-www.tos.net/tos/romulan/romulan.html (1994) Tong, Andrew. "NCC-1701 Destroyed, Constitution Class Starships Withdrawn." The Star Trek Chronology. May 27, 1994. http://cruciform.cid.com/~werdna/sttng/trek6/trek6-3b1.html (15 Jan. 1995) "The Defector." Synopsis from The Vidiot's TNG Program Guide. (date unknown) http://cruciform.cid.com/~werdna/sttng/synopsis/defector.syn.html (15 Jan.1995) "The Romulans." The Starlog ST:TNG Official Magazine Technical Journal. (Date unknown). http://www.cms.dmu.ac.uk/AUG/StarTrek/romulan.html (12 Jun. 1995)

Is Tv the Cause of Violence in Today’s Society? Essay

TV has bad Impacts As we all know some TV programs are educational, they open our minds by providing information that are unlikely to be taught in schools and other places such as home-schooling But there are also some TV programs that are not so educational, which could affect us physically and emotionally. According to some research it was said that Television has a higher level of violence, in most of the cases these programs are being watched by young children which can be a negative influence and it could affects the children’s grades, sleep and daily activities. Kids are small and their minds haven’t developed yet, so when a child watches a show or a movie they usually copy everything that is being done on the screen, not even caring whether it’s good or bad. AS I said, when a child watches violence on TV they repeat what is being done, thinking that their action will not be punished, which means they are being persuaded that crimes, and violence don’t cause any harm. For example 47% of violent television programs show the victim being unharmed, especially in cartoons. Characters in cartoons and television shows get blowed over by another character and they get back up without being harmed, this makes children believe that violence doesn’t really hurt anyone. TV and Violance Television shows that allows the character who commits the crime to receive no punishment, allows children to learn that it is alright to commit a crime because nothing will be done. Television has no significant influence on an adult’s mind, but it has a major impact on children, and on their brain’s development. Most important of all, if children catch the idea of violence in childhood from TV, then their ideas and thoughts about crimes, murders, etc. can’t be changed. If we Watch too much television We begin to ignore the outer world, we become less social, our personality slightly begin to change negatively, and most of all we begin to have diseases such as refractive error of the eyes (especially near-sightedness), obesity, heart attack, spine disease, mental disorder, etc.,

Homlessness in the US

In the two studies I reviewed, both pertained to school aged homeless children. Both studies were conducted to determine the need for a better education for these children. The first study I reviewed was called, Sheltered homeless children: Their eligibility and unmet need for special education evaluations. This study focused on the exploration of unmet need of special education evaluations for homeless children in Los Angeles, California. The second of my studies was called, Cognitive and academic functioning of homeless children compared to housed children. The analyzation focused on the effects of being homeless to a child's cognitive and academic functioning. Both of the above studies brought about the same basic issue of homeless children having the right to a better education. In both studies it was determined that homeless children, when tested, perform rather poorly in the area of academics. In the first study (Sheltered Homeless Children: Their Eligibility and Unmet Need for Special Education evaluations) homeless shelters were selected randomly and from these families were selected that consisted of one child aged 6 to 12 years. Testing was performed in a quiet place. There were 118 parents and 169 children involved in the study. The parents were asked questions pertaining to the how and why of homelessness. The homeless children were tested with questions from the RAND Course of Homelessness Study 3. 9, a Behavior Checklist, the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, the National Health Service, and the Woodcock-Johnson Language Proficiency Battery Assessment Test. The Peabody Vocabulary picture test was also used in the second study. In the second study (Cognitive and Academic Functioning of Homeless Children compared with Housed Children) the homeless children and their mothers selected for the study were from the Bronx in NY. There were 102 homeless children in the study. They were between the ages of 6-11, around the same age group as the first study; they were sought out of public schools. The housed children were selected randomly for the study. The mothers were asked how and why they became homeless and how long they had been homeless, and if they had a job, as in the study before. The children were all tested with numerous tests pertaining to their academic and cognitive functioning skills. The Raven's Test, the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, the Wide-range Achievement Test, a Child Depression Inventory test, and A maternal Anxiety test were issued to the children. Both of the studies focused on the same issue, that homeless children were not being assessed for their need of assistance with their academics. The first study did not involve children who were not homeless but the second study used them as a control. The second study also focused more on the effects of being homeless leading to anxiety and depression. Both of the studies had determined that homeless children have poorer scores compared to those that are non-homeless, and that they are more developmentally delayed. Both the studies also found that they have a higher rate of learning disabilities. There is also a higher need to assess children who might be eligible for special education services. The findings of the first study imply that there is a high level of unmet need for special education evaluations for homeless children. There should be more procedures conducted to determine one's eligibility for special education services for the homeless. Also, interventions should be provided for school-aged homeless children from special education professionals, general health care providers, and housing services. The second study suggests that there needs to be more of an effort to educate those that are homeless by academic professors. There needs to be more assessment of special education for these children. The study also touched on the fact that these children are often depressed and have a high rate of anxiety, this should be assessed through counseling services. In both of the studies, society needs to take an interest in helping get these children off the streets in the first place. The main purpose for both of the studies was to examine the impact homelessness has on a child's academic functional level. In both of the studies it was found that homeless children between the ages of 6-12 scored lower on achievement tests. They also had a higher level of depression and anxiety. Furthermore, they also had an increased rate of learning disabilities and the need for special education evaluations. Society needs to put more of an effort in getting these children off the streets and into a proper home so they can grow more academically and to develop at a typical rate. Academic professionals need to assess their need of assistance with their work and assess a higher need of special education evaluations. Professionals need to understand that these children have a harder time concentrating on their academic material because they are faced with issues like where they are going to sleep tonight instead of 4+3.

Geoecology-Human Impact on Biomes

Humans have impacted on natural activities in the Sahel region and the desert biome region by over-cropping, overgrazing and deforestation. The Sahel is a narrow strip of land between the Sahara to the north and the Savanna and equatorial rain-forest to the South. It is a dry (Semi-Arid) region receiving rain in the wet Season from June to September. The Sahara desert is growing South by up to 5-10 Kilometers each year. Which is mainly due to human activity. Overgrazing: the people of the region were traditionally Nomadic. They moved following the rain and pasture- land. Wealth was defined by animal ownership by the tribes of the Sahel. As the number of cattle and goats increased so did the competition for grazing land. They allowed the animals to graze the land more than it could sustain. Young trees were also grazed. Herders also moved animals onto marginal grazing land until there was little or no vegetation remaining. Wells were sunk to provide water for all the animals. This made herders remain longer in the one area applying more pressure on the land. The wells used up all the ground water causing the water tables to fall. Eventually the wells dried up along with the land around it. As the human population increased farming methods changed, Nomadic herding was replaced with a more settled style of herding. Farmers began to fence in land and work it more intensely. Leading to soils being overused an d exhausted. Soils began to lose structure an minerals. Vegetation was lost due to the large numbers of animals grazing and trampling the land. It was also unable to grow back because the soil was now drained of all its nutrients. This in turn has a knock on effect, when the vegetative cover is lost it leaves the soil exposed to erosion by wind and heat. It leaves an easy job for heavy rain to wash away the topsoil. Over-cropping: The population of the region grew rapidly and this led to an increased demand in food. Grazing became replaced by growing food crops. The increased demand for food meant that the ‘Fallow Year' was abandoned. Farmers were also put under pressure by the Government to grow ‘Cash Crops' to help repay their International debt. this continuous usage of the grassland robbed the land of its nutrients and minerals. Soon this land became sterile and worthless. Farmers now needed more land in order to achieve the same return. ue to the shortage of wood people burned dried manure for heat and cooking, instead of using it on the land as a fertiliser. As the vegetation cover was reduced the amount of humus available was also reduced. Crops began to fail and again soil has lost its cover and was now vunerable to wind erosion. Deforestation: Wood accounts for around 90% of the energy requirements in the Sahel. Deforestation is ‘the loss of forests due to th over-cuttingvof trees'. Trees slow down the wind and their roots help to bind soil, they also absorb moisture during heavy rainfall. The removal of trees leaves soil exposed to erosion. The land which had been shaded by trees becomes dried out and burned by the sun, resulting in desertification. There are methods to solve the problems of over-cropping and overgrazing . Crop rotation is one way in which the soil is not exhausted, and so stop desertification. Farmers can also place lines of small stones acroos the land to act as dams. Here the water has no where to go but to be absorbed by the soil.. This reduces run-off and increases soil fertility. Contour ploughing is when the land is ploughed across rather than vertically. This to in the same way as the stones act as a dam and prevents run off and stops the topsoil being washed away in heavy downpours. Farming methods such as strip farming, where crops are planted widely spaced then a different plant is planted in the gap. This ensures the land is not being depleted of nutrients and the fact the crops are harvested at different times means both plants will be using different minerals. Shelters belts (trees) are also planted to prevent soil from wind erosion. Also shelter belts are normally friut producing trees which also provides a source of food.

Poland Business Cycle

This Country Focus analyses and interprets the statistical characteristics of the Polish business cycle. It also identifies leading and lagging variables and shows that the economic fluctuations in Poland differ to some extent from those in other emerging and mature economies, with Polish growth notably more volatile and government expenditure highly erratic. The available data on GDP growth suggest that the Polish economy is approaching the peak of the second business cycle since the start of economic transformation from a centrally planned to a market economy.The current upswing is to some extent similar to the one of 1995-1997 which ended in large macroeconomic imbalances (increasing unemployment, spare capacity, widening fiscal and current account deficits). However, Poland now appears to be better positioned than after the last cycle and should be able to avoid a repeat of that outcome. Business cycles in emerging market economies Although the economic literature on business cyc les is vast, only recently have some papers on business cycles in emerging market economies appeared.Usually they analyse economic fluctuations within particular countries (e. g. Benczur and Ratfai, 2005) or make some cross-country comparisons (e. g. Aguayo et al. , 2004 or Carmignani, 2005). A common methodology used in the analysis of business cycles (based on observations of mature economies and economic theory) distinguishes pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical and a-cyclical variables. Pro-cyclical variables fluctuate together with GDP (e. g. industrial production, investment, employment, inflation), countercyclical variables against GDP (e. g. nemployment, net exports) and a-cyclical variables independently of GDP (e. g. real interest rates). 1 With respect to timing, the ‘stylised facts' of the business cycle identify leading, lagging and coincident variables: leading variables move ahead of GDP (e. g. average labour productivity, inventory investment, money supply), lagging variables follow GDP (e. g. inflation, nominal interest rates) and coincident variables, as the name suggests, move coincidentally with GDP (e. g. industrial production, consumption, employment) (Snowdon & Vane, 2005, p. 306).Overall, business cycles in emerging market economies (Carmignani, 2005)2 are not much different from those in mature economies (Snowdon and Vane, 2005, p. 306), By Michal Narozny* The business cycle in Poland: where do we stand? Highlights in this issue: †¢ While on the whole not different from mature economies, the properties of the business cycle in Poland display some special characteristics †¢ The current cycle seems to have reached a peak but the slowdown is likely not to be as pronounced as in the previous cycle Volume IV, Issue 9 03. 08. 2007 ECFIN COUNTRY FOCUS Directorate for the Economies of the Member States. The views expressed in the ECFIN Country Focus belong to the authors only and do not necessarily correspond to those of the Director ate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs or the European Commission.Economic analysis from the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Identification of direction and timing is key in business cycle analysis ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 2 but economies in transition (though they do not constitute a homogeneous group) display some specific characteristics: overall, the economy is much more volatile than in the euro area, which is the consequence of structural changes and catching-up, †¢ shocks are slightly less persistent than in the euro area, and fluctuations consequently more frequent, †¢ government consumption is more erratic than in the euro area, suggesting a significant discretionary element in fiscal policies, but not one that is necessarily aimed at cyclical stabilisation, †¢ employment is a-cyclical in some, but pro-cyclical in other emerging economies, †¢ inflation in emerging economies is volatile and not clearly pro-cyclical.Table 1 shows some tentative analysis of the key macroeconomic variables in the Polish business cycle. All variables (except for inflation and net exports) were logtransformed, de-seasonalised by means of the X. 12 method and later de-trended using the HP filter. Net exports were expressed as a ratio to GDP and deseasonalised by means of the multiplicative X. 11 method before being de-trended. Volatility of cyclical fluctuations, and hence the magnitude of the business cycle, is measured by the standard deviation. Polish GDP volatility is about 0. 015, compared to 0. 08 for the euro area. The persistence of cyclical fluctuations is measured by the auto-correlation coefficient: the closer to 1, the more persistent the shock (and the longer it takes to absorb it) and therefore the less fluctuation in the business cycle. Testing for the Polish business cycle persistence yields a coefficient of 0. 55 compared to 0. 85 for the euro area. Table 1. Su mmary statistics of business cycle fluctuations in Poland Correlations with the cyclical component of GDP Poland Standard Autodeviation correlation -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 GDP 0. 015 0. 550 1Industrial production 3. 317 0. 730 -0. 018 0. 154 0. 314 0. 515 0. 771 0. 599 0. 444 0. 229 0. 113 Private consumption 0. 013 0. 269 0. 015 0. 079 0. 283 0. 433 0. 434 0. 385 0. 463 0. 380 0. 037 Government consumption 0. 020 0. 001 -0. 200 0. 007 0. 230 0. 022 -0. 211 0. 175 0. 282 0. 199 0. 051 GFCF 0. 070 0. 717 0. 357 0. 399 0. 403 0. 484 0. 824 0. 585 0. 371 0. 313 0. 344 Inventories 1. 189 -0. 072 -0. 139 0. 044 0. 021 0. 074 0. 199 0. 187 0. 150 0. 177 0. 230 Net exports 0. 012 0. 574 -0. 061 -0. 174 -0. 386 -0. 373 -0. 326 -0. 513 -0. 497 -0. 389 -0. 452 Exports 0. 58 -0. 005 0. 098 0. 199 0. 177 0. 225 0. 594 -0. 018 0. 030 -0. 016 -0. 193 Imports 0. 063 0. 378 0. 097 0. 252 0. 350 0. 408 0. 672 0. 377 0. 384 0. 258 0. 175 Employment 0. 017 0. 857 0. 291 0. 372 0. 411 0. 452 0. 545 0. 40 9 0. 333 0. 355 0. 344 Labour productivity 0. 354 0. 512 0. 120 0. 090 0. 056 0. 070 0. 133 0. 257 0. 109 0. 026 -0. 142 Money supply (M1) 0. 041 0. 776 -0. 078 -0. 060 0. 092 0. 260 0. 475 0. 472 0. 535 0. 505 0. 432 Inflation 1. 819 0. 779 0. 092 0. 321 0. 511 0. 596 0. 473 0. 290 0. 082 -0. 082 -0. 146 CPI 1. 737 0. 777 0. 086 0. 255 0. 411 0. 422 0. 00 0. 082 -0. 075 -0. 167 -0. 184 Real interest rate 0. 655 0. 942 0. 226 0. 279 0. 302 0. 263 0. 135 0. 132 0. 120 0. 092 0. 088 Source: Own estimates. Data source: Eurostat. Sample: 1995Q3 – 2007Q1 Summary statistics Lags Leads Business cycles in Poland – what is different and what is alike The analysis of the Polish cycle yields a number stylised facts, which are to some degree typical for emerging economies. Table 2 summarises a number of stylised facts on business cycles in mature economies and in Poland (bearing in mind the relatively short time span for the latter).It shows that some of the usual characteristics of business cycles in mature economies (or even in emerging economies) are not seen in Poland. Where this is the case, some interpretation is offered. Industrial production is usually pro-cyclical and coincident in both mature and emerging economies, but in Poland it has a slightly leading property, which indicates the importance of industrial production as a driver of the business cycle. In the aggregate demand components, private consumption seems to be procyclical in Poland.However, it is not coincident as in mature economies, and has a lead-lag profile that is not typical: it is almost flat over four quarters with some lead. Hence, although private consumption is the largest component of GDP, the dynamic relation over time between the two variables is erratic, possibly indicating consumption smoothing, which is characteristic of low-income economies. However, the ratio of the standard deviation of private consumption to the standard deviation of GDP (by which consumption smoothi ng is usually judged) is estimated at 0. 8, i. e. higher than the upper bound of the normal range reported in the literature. 3 This suggests that consumption smoothing is not present in Poland, which might indicate lower risk aversion and/or underdevelopment of financial markets. The Polish business cycle displays some characteristic properties Business fluctuations in Poland are highly volatile and persistent ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 3 Table 2. The ‘stylised facts' about business cycles in mature economies and Poland Variable Mature economies* Poland** category VariableDirection Timing Direction Timing Supply side Industrial production pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident/leading Private consumption pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical erratic Government consumption pro-cyclical erratic counter-cyclical /erratic erratic GFCF pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident Inventories pro-cyclical leading pro-cyclical leading Net exports counter- cyclical coincident/ lagging counter-cyclical erratic Exports pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident Demand components Imports pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincidentLabour Employment pro-cyclical coincident pro-cyclical coincident/lagging market Labour productivity pro-cyclical leading pro-cyclical leading Money supply pro-cyclical leading pro-cyclical leading Monetary Inflation pro-cyclical lagging pro-cyclical lagging variables Real Interest rates a-cyclical erratic pro-cyclical lagging * Features commonly found in the literature. Main source: Snowdon ; Vane (2005) ** See Table 1 Source: Own calculations (see Table 1) and Snowdon ; Vane (2005) Government consumption seems to be neither systematically counter- nor procyclical.High volatility and a very low persistence (i. e. frequent fluctuations of sizeable magnitude) point to an irregular pattern of government consumption, suggesting an important role of discretionary fiscal policies, which is a distinctive feat ure of emerging economies (Carmignani, 2005) and possibly related to the existence of a political cycle in public finances. Gross fixed capital formation appears to be coincident, highly pro-cyclical and persistent (auto-correlation of 0. 2) and inventories behave according to the ‘stylised facts': they are pro-cyclical and leading (though less so than in mature economies). Finally, both exports and imports can be seen as pro-cyclical, but imports slightly more so than exports, which is in line with the features of mature, but not emerging economies where exports are a-cyclical on average. Moreover, imports seem to be quite persistent (following persistent GFCF), unlike exports (which depend on external demand); both variables are highly volatile (standard deviations are more than the double of the euro-area).Net exports are moderately counter-cyclical with an erratic pattern over time (due to persistent imports), whereas in mature economies net exports are also counter-cyclic al, but usually coincident or lagging. With respect to the labour market, employment shows up as pro-cyclical and coincident, with some evidence of lagging, which places Poland somewhere in the middle between mature and emerging economies in this respect. Labour productivity appears to be pro-cyclical and leading, in line with the ‘stylised facts', though the leading property is less pronounced than in mature economies.Pro-cyclicality of employment with its smooth and slightly lagged correlation profile suggests labour hoarding (Burnside et al. , 1993). Among the monetary variables, the money supply apears to be pro-cyclical and leading. Inflation seems to be pro-cyclical and to follow GDP as in mature economies, which is not the case in most emerging economies (where inflation is acyclical – see Carmignani, 2005). This is probably due to the fact that at the beginning of the transformation process all emerging economies had very high inflation rates that systematically decreased.Thus, it is hard to discern a clear cyclical pattern. Poland managed to achieve relatively low inflation sooner than other emerging countries, allowing this pro-cyclicality to be revealed earlier. Contrary to the ‘stylised facts' for mature (but also emerging) economies, where real interest rates are a-cyclical with no clear pattern with respect to timing, real interest rates in Poland show up as being pro-cyclical and lagging, implying a countercyclical monetary policy (coefficient of correlation with GDP is 0. 4 and there is a clear lagging pattern). Smooth and lagged correlation profile of pro-cyclical employment suggests labour hoarding The irregular pattern of government consumption suggests that discretionary fiscal policies play an important role ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 4 Troughs, peaks and the drivers of growth The first economic cycle since the beginning of economic transition lasted about 10 years, with the expansion and slowdown phases each spanning about 5 years; the cycle ended in the second quarter of 2001.The current upswing has already lasted 6 years, which suggests that the peak is imminent if the length of the current cycle is similar to the previous one. Decelerating leading variables (industrial production, net exports and labour productivity) may also be signs of a turning point. Chart 1. Developments of basic economic variables in Poland in 1991-2008 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 % CA deficit (% of GDP) Unemployment rate (rhs) CPI inflation (rhs) GDP growth Fiscal deficit (lhs)Source: Commission services In both the early 1990s and in 2001, when the economy was at its trough, there was a large unutilised labour supply and substantial reserves in enterprises’ capacity utilisation. The fiscal deficit was also substantial. In the first cycle, ample supply of resources was a consequence of t ransition to a market economy which caused a recession in 1990-1991. In 2001-2002 it followed from the world economic slowdown and a restrictive monetary policy, which forced Polish enterprises to reorganise to raise their competitiveness and efficiency. Poland got out of the trough twice hanks to exogenous impulses to investment: the restructuring of the London Club debt in 1994 (which brought the first major wave of FDI) and entry into the EU in 2004 (which led to an inflow of EU funds). The external circumstances were also favourable as the world economy expanded in the nineties until 1998 and has been on a stable growth path since 2003. Chart 2. Contributions to GDP growth in Poland in 1991-2008 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % total consumption GFCF Inventories Net exports GDP growthSource: Commission services The main factor that drove real GDP growth in 1995-1997 to about 7% was dynamic domest ic demand growth of 8? % on average, supported by robust consumption (about 5 percentage points contribution to GDP growth on average). Despite the fact that the economy was growing above potential and domestic demand was growing significantly faster than GDP, a strong zloty appreciation (with a temporary blip in 2000) ensured that the disinflation process was not disturbed. However, this There are indications that the Polish business cycle has approached a peak Large acroeconomic imbalance during the troughs ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 5 situation led to a fast-growing imbalance on the current account: the 2% of GDP surplus in 1994 fell to a deficit of 6% of GDP in 1999 (to which the Russian crisis also contributed). Growth outlook based on solid foundations for now It is estimated that the Polish economy is currently expanding at a pace close to its potential (approximated at 5. 9% in 2007), on the back of rising domestic demand, which is likely to be followed by i ncreasing imports and a deteriorating current account balance.The growth of gross fixed capital formation accelerated to 17% in 2006 and to nearly 30% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2007. Private consumption increased at 5. 2% in 2006 and stepped up to 6. 9% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2007, which is significantly higher than the 2. 7% average growth in 2000-2003. So far, this expansion of consumption has not led to a rapid increase in the current account deficit (which rose from 1. 7% in 2005 to 2. 3% of GDP in 2006) or a rise in inflation (which has come in below the central bank's medium-term inflation target of 2. % for eight quarters in a row), mainly thanks to moderate real wage growth. However, with a tightening labour market, emerging skill mismatches and workforce emigration the pressure on wages is expected to become more significant, contributing to a further increase of consumption. In consequence, it might lead to an escalation of the external imbalance and/or increase d inflation. Nevertheless, GDP growth in the current phase seems to be based on more solid foundations than in the late 1990s: †¢ Firstly, the share of exports in GDP has nearly tripled in 1992-2006 to about 40%; the number of exporters has also increased considerably.The structure of exports has improved, with a bigger share of processed goods and a higher value added. Foreign direct investment has helped increase the production capacity of the Polish economy, which enables the domestic market to better meet increased private demand, and makes the balance of payments less prone to fluctuations in domestic demand. In addition, increased investment-driven imports are largely balanced by increased exports on account of a good situation in the external environment. †¢ Secondly, the floating exchange rate is likely to act as a buffer against imported inflation.However, even without a strong zloty appreciation, inflation in Poland during the coming years is expected to stay rel atively low: below or around the central bank's medium-term inflation target of 2. 5%. As the Polish economy is now more open than 10 years ago, inflation is more influenced by global factors. Increased exposure of Polish enterprises to international competition limits their ability to freely increase prices and wages. They are forced to increase labour productivity faster than wages to maintain their market position. Thus, even with growing wage demands, enterprises are more willing to decrease mark-ups than to raise prices. Thirdly, increased household incomes acquired as a result of higher wages and an improved labour market situation may not translate into consumption to the same extent as in the previous economic cycle. There is evidence that households are now more saturated with basic durable and consumption goods which they lacked before4 and are more eager to spend additional income on holidays abroad owing to a more mature service sector. Financial markets are more develop ed than 10 years ago, giving an opportunity for financial investments. ConclusionsThe business cycle in Poland exhibits similar properties to cycles in mature economies, but there are some notable differences for government consumption, net exports and real interest rates (although for the last variable the picture may be blurred by its very high level at the beginning of the transformation process). However, because the data series are short, the results should be interpreted with caution. The irregular behaviour of government consumption in Poland with respect to influence on the business cycle could be related to a discretionary fiscal policy implemented within a political business cycle.GDP growth is based on more solid foundations in the current cycle ECFIN Country Focus Volume IV, Issue 9 Page 6 The analysis of the previous upswing in Poland, the identification of variables with leading properties with respect to GDP, and the latest developments all seem to suggest that the Po lish economy might have reached the peak of the current cycle in the first quarter of 2007. Nevertheless, thanks to the ongoing process of restructuring of the economy, the slowdown phase is not likely to be as pronounced as in the previous cycle and should not lead to major imbalances.